Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Source: TradingView

A “mini-Santa Claus rally” has ultimately occurred in Bitcoin and the price broke above a consolidation pattern we’ve talked about a week ago as well. However, thin liquidity conditions are not favorable for a more robust rally, which is why the price stalled around the 4h chart 200 SMA.

It is now stuck between that line and the 20 EMA, confirming the lack of directional bias. A new trading week has started but we suspect daily ranges will remain subdued for the next couple of days.

However, the areas to watch on the upside are $52k and $53.5k, two prior swing highs/lows, where there had been orders accumulating in the pact. A breach below the 20 EMA, on the other hand, could drive Bitcoin back below $50k.

Overall, the price is poised to end 2021 with gains, even though a solid retracement from the highs occurred. The seasonality will remain favorable until the year winds down, but be aware things are taking a 180-degrees turn in January when Bitcoin has been usually seen underperforming other asset classes.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Source: TradingView

When it comes to Ether, the bullish move up has been weaker as compared to BTC, an early indication for the thin order flow driving the price action. Buying at this point would be risky since the market can easily reverse and trap buyers at higher levels.

Looking at the 4h chart, a short-term ascending trend line formed and while it caps the downside, we could ETH fluctuating in a narrow range with a slight upward bias. In case it breaks, that would mean the next couple of weeks might be bearish and Ether could revisit the current December lows near $3.4k.

The price could barely touch the 4h chart 200 SMA and that means there are selling order placed near it. A break above the orange line would be a short-term encouraging sign and a reason for buyers to push the price towards $4.4k.

XRPUSD (Kraken)

Source: TradingView

We did not cover XRP in a long time, mainly because the altcoin has been underperforming the broad market. While other tokens were edging higher, this one was locked inside a large triangle pattern.

As time passed, the structure is almost completely filled and a breakout could be an early trigger for a move that could last for weeks, if not months. For now, we are during holiday trading and we believe XRP will remain range-bound between $1 and 80 cents.

Playing both sides of the triangle could be appropriate until volatility starts to pick up. A bearish confirmation would appear if the price broke below 62 cents. That’s the December 2021 low and it will mean the market generated a new lower low.

On the upside, it would be encouraging to see XRP rotating towards $1.2. A breakout above the November 2021 highs can push the price closer to the ATHs over the next few months. We don’t advise heavy trading during such conditions, but if some would like to stay active in the market, placing trades near key areas would be better.