Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Bitcoin price and volatility continued to compress over the past week, testing the patience of both buyers and sellers. However, since the triangle pattern drawn on our chart is about to get filled, a break should occur soon.

For months, the daily 20 EMA has been treated as a resistance zone, with sellers entering aggressively on corrective moves higher. The last several weeks, however, have seen a weakening of this dynamic resistance, which is why we are favoring a move on the upside.

A jump towards $22,500 can occur by the end of November or even sooner, in case the sentiment will start to improve. The period around Halloween is positive for crypto in general, so combined with the low prices we are seeing right now, the probability favors a rebound higher.

Still, all options are on the table and the fact we see little reaction in crypto, even if stocks had the best week since June, communicates buyers are not eager to enter. Traders should monitor $18,500 and $17,500 on the downside, given a break below them would be an early sign of weakness.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

The correlation between the two largest cryptos remains elevated and hence, Ether also had a modest performance last week. We can notice on the 4h chart that the 200 SMA is acting as a ceiling so only a break above it can unleash new buying.

Yet even that won’t change the broader context, considering the price continues to trade inside a range between $1,250 and $1,350. Clear directional bias can only be achieved once the price breaks outside this structure and continues to move in the direction of the breakout.

Like Bitcoin, we are favoring a move to the upside in Ether, mentioning that downside risks will continue to persist. Even if a leg up can occur, it will still be a bear market rally. To see a new major bull run, a lot of things have to change for the better and we are not there yet.

TONUSD (FTX)

 Finding a token that managed to end this week in the green is a real challenge, yet some are posting gains. One of them is Toncoin, which rose approximately 3% in a week. It doubled in value between August and September, retracing around 40% of the gains ever since.

Following two consecutive large daily gains, TON was capped by the daily 200 SMA for the third time in less than two months. That’s sign sellers continue to be in control and TON could head south until finding new strong buyers.

Good levels to watch for a bounce are $1.25 and the $1 psychological area. If neither will cap the downside, the token might be headed for new 2022 lows. On the upside, TON needs to break and hold above the SMA to consider buyers are in control.

If that would be the case eventually, the price has the potential to move above $2 once again. $225 is an area to watch because sellers might get active around it.