Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Even though November is usually positive for Bitcoin, the price doesn’t seem to follow that seasonal trend thus far. We don’t see a major break below the daily 200 SMA yet, but the sellers do have a slight edge.

Technically, we see Bitcoin locked in a range between $107.4k and $116k. At the time of writing, buyers are managing to defend the bottom of that area and if the momentum keeps building, we should expect more gains throughout the week. Above $116k, our attention will shift towards $123k as the next major target. 

A rising US Dollar, rising yields, are lower expectations for a FED rate cut in December currently weigh on the BTC price. In case selling accelerates below $107.4k, there will be a growing risk for an extension towards $100k, a key psychological area. 

We can’t give an edge to any scenario at this stage, since the market could go either way. However, despite current pressure, the sentiment should improve as long as there are no major negative headlines to digest. 

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Similar signs of weakness can be spotted in ETH, where the price is unable to break and hold above the daily 20 EMA. That shows sellers are the ones in control and the series of lower lows highlighted on our chart confirms the bearish structure. 

The selling we saw today erased 3 consecutive days of gains and for that matter, we would be comfortable buying only after a deeper pullback. We think that if the price drops below $3,600, that will unlock further downside towards $3,400, where the daily 200 SMA also overlaps. 

Also obvious on the daily chart is the parabolic structure that suggests a temporary top is now in place. We would need to see ETH breaking above the bearish trend line and above the $4,300 key resistance area. Only after that will buyers be the ones driving the order flow. 

BNBUSD (Binance)

After relentless buying since the start of the year until the beginning of October, Binance Coin is finally showing signs of exhaustion. The price double topped around $1,360 and since then, the price action structure has changed, considering the market is now treating the daily 20 EMA as resistance instead of support. 

Moreover, we currently see sustained selling to start the new week and that would put the $948 support in the spotlight. We expect supportive flows there and if that’s not the case, $900 will be next below it. 

As long as the price trades below the daily 20 EMA and the buying momentum continues to be weak, we give an edge to sellers. The BNB has been exaggerated and some might say the coin is overpriced at above $1,000. 

That seems to be what the market participants think, considering the price is showing signs of weakness. We will only shift our stance to slightly bullish on a pop above $1,200. That’s the least-likely scenario right now.