Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Source: TradingView

Although Bitcoin initially surged at the beginning of last week, most likely as Russian citizens were piling on crypto to evade government restrictions, the trend could not be sustained. As a matter of fact, by Sunday afternoon sellers have managed to erase almost all the gains, which does not bode well for the sentiment looking forward.

In the short-term, unless positive news from Ukraine boosts sentiment across financial markets, Bitcoin looks poised for a retest of an ascending trendline. That puts our target around $35,000. Further deterioration could mean the longer-term $30,000 area of support could be next on the list.

It has been a bad week for all risk assets, including stocks, so there should be no surprise to see Bitcoin continuing to weaken. The less likely scenario is for us to see a quick bounce and buyers erasing all gains, driving Bitcoin up towards the $44,000 area. Technicals matter less now as market participants focus on geopolitics. Headline trading will be dominating next week.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Source: TradingView

A similar negative development can be spotted in Ether, a token that’s still trapped inside a symmetrical triangle formation. The price has been under pressure for the past 5 days and that means a retest of the lower line is now on the cards.

Looking at the bigger picture, the bearish parabolic structure remains intact, which is why we suspect there is still scope for further weakness. As a result, the probability of a break below the triangle and continuation lower, towards the $1,800 area, has increased substantially.

To negate our view, buyers should resume in force and break above the triangle. If that happens, we think the next target for Ether will be $3,600, where the daily 200 SMA is also located. Keep in mind this is still the less-likely scenario, as markets are dampened by war and its influence on global economic activity.

XMRUSD (Kraken)

Source: TradingView

Due to its privacy features, Monero is among the few major cryptocurrencies that are trading in the positive territory for the weak. Although gains are modest, it suggests market participants have been bidding the price, hoping they will find refuge in the face of sanctions imposed on Russia.

However, from a price action point of view, things are not rosy for buyers, considering the price still trades in a narrow range, after being under pressure since May 2021. Looking ahead, traders should monitor the direction of the breakout.

Breaking on the upside will open some more room for buyers, and XMR could retest the $220 area. On the other hand, renewed pressure driving the price below $140 might be an early sign of weakness.

The price target if this scenario materializes could go as low as $100. We believe that any temporary bounce will be an opportunity to short, given the low interest for Monero seen over the past 6 months. Anything can change in this environment, so watch out for spikes in the short term if new financial sanctions will be imposed on Russia.