Crypto Frontline

On October 31^st we have the Bitcoin birthday and it will officially have 10 years since its creation. What a ride had been and what impressive price run it had since then. Today’s article is an anniversary one, so will talk mostly about positive aspects and also, October 31^st it’s the Halloween day, so we will talk about an interesting phenomenon which happens in the stock markets and in the cryptocurrency market, called – The Halloween Effect.

What a ride we had

In ten years, the Bitcoin price surged from a few cents to almost 20,000 US dollars at the end of 2017. Although it had dropped during 2018, we are still around 6,400, an impressive valuation for a digital currency, widely criticized by top financiers across the globe. Despite their negative feedback in the last few years, Bitcoin is not dead, and it is still the most dominant cryptocurrency on the planet.

So many cryptocurrencies had appeared since 2008, with now being more than 2,400 registered. The Bitcoin dominance is still obvious, holding 53% of the global market cap at the time of writing. We now have Bitcoin futures trading on the CBOE exchange, and other new futures contracts launching soon by the ICE. We still don’t have Bitcoin ETFs, unfortunately, but at some point in time, that seems to be very likely to happen.

The Halloween effect

According to a study conducted on the stock market performance for the past 300 years, it seems like the returns in case you have bought the stock market on October 31^st would have been much higher, as compared to the traditional “sell in May and buy in October” approach. This is the Halloween effect and, in some ways, it looks to have an impact on Bitcoin as well.

We’ve talked about Bitcoin seasonality in a previous article and we have seen how Bitcoin had a positive price performance in four out of the last five years. If we analyze in greater detail, we can see that if we have bought Bitcoin on October 31^st for the past few years, we would have been able to profit from an upward move. It did not behave exactly the same way in every year, but buying Bitcoin on October 31^st seems to be a “no brainer” trade from our point of view. You should do your own research and see on the chart how Bitcoin had actually behaved at the end of October and maybe this year you will have a better Halloween holiday, by buying Bitcoin at the right time.