Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Bitcoin volatility compressed even further last week, in the absence of any catalyzer that could drive the price back up. Moreover, we can see the price consolidating in a triangle pattern, so as we move into next week, the direction of the breakout could indicate where the short-term momentum is headed.

As a result, in case BTC starts moving above $17,000, that could be a welcoming sign for buyers, given a retest of the prior 2022 low at $17,600 would look increasingly likely. Further gains can push the price towards $18,200, where some profit-taking, combined with selling interest is expected. The bias remains tilted in favor of sellers, yet oversold conditions combined with Christmas seasonality might lead to a rebound.

Below the triangle, BTC has little support around $15,600, followed by the $15,000 psychological area. We suspect selling will ease, bearing there will be no new negative news supporting new liquidations. The FTX fallout hit confidence and could lead to crypto selling over the upcoming months. That doesn’t seem to be the case right now, which is why the sentiment looks more upbeat next week.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Ether looks in much better shape than BTC, simply because the price continues to trade above the September lows. The past 10 days have seen selling easing, which is why even in this case we believe there is scope for some upside into the end of 2022.

Support should emerge close to $1,100 and only a breakout lower can expose $1,000 or $880. We think the token will not revisit those lows this year but can stage a short-term comeback. Traders looking for swing trades might want to target the daily 200 SMA and a falling trend line located around that same area.

The broad crypto market is still in poor condition and absent strong bullish interest, rounding bottoms and sharp tops can be noticed on the chart. If ETH breaks above the daily 20 EMA, more gains should follow after that.

XRPUSD (Kraken)

XRP is the only major token up around 6% for the week, after the price managed to bounce off the 33 cents support area. However, some short-term selling emerged at the daily 200 SMA, suggesting this crypto is not out of the woods yet.

Still, these gains combined with positive sentiment next week might lead to outperformance and in that scenario, XRP looks poised for a retest of 40 cents. If the price breaks above 44 cents, the table is set for a continuation toward 50 cents. That would imply the losses that occurred after the FTX bankruptcy would be almost completely erased.

On the flip side, continued selling would mean the 33 cents support area might be under pressure once again. There have been several bounces off that level in the past, so we suspect the pattern to continue, given the lack of strong directional bias expected near the end of the year. This should not be regarded as a token to buy and hold, but one where short-term trade opportunities can emerge.