Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

It was another week to forget for Bitcoin as selling pressure continued to intensify, driving the price towards the peak of 2018, around $20k. The price overshoot below it, but thankfully, buyers started to get more active once $18k has been reached.

Right now it’s Monday morning and a short-term bottoming attempt is shaping up. Looking at the RSO, we can spot several prior occasions when a bounce took place when the indicator reached oversold conditions.

With that being the case, we are cautiously optimistic, but only for the near term, and it’s possible to see BTC edging closer to the daily 20 EMA. At the same time, the May 2022 low has now turned into resistance, so be careful in case the price reaches it this week.

On the sell side, we should see persistent selling below the current June lows to suggest that the capitulation is not yet over. The next key support area lies around $15k, but the probability of reaching it this week is low, from our perspective. Anything can happen in such a wild market, but prices can just go down in a straight line.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

The $1k area is a clear line in the sand for Ether, given the selling seems to have stalled around it. Sunday ended up being a positive day and despite massive selling last week, a bounce could continue to extend higher during the following days.

We expect more choppiness, but overall, the selloff could be taking a break, after a long string of liquidations. ETH remains the second-largest crypto in the world and long-term buyers might be attracted to start getting exposure at these attractive levels.

A daily close below $1k could open more downside room towards $700. However, our more likely scenario involves a pause in selling and at least some consolidation, until the market will start to gain more confidence. The daily 20 EMA comes around $1.4k so watch for renewed selling in case the price gets to that point.

Structurally, Ether is still trading below a descending trend line and until a break above it will occur, sellers are the ones in control over the order flow.

BNBUSD (Binance)

To get more clues into whether the crypto market is poised to head south in the short-term we are looking at BNB. As we can see from the chart, the market retested the May low but failed to continue impulsively, which raises the question of whether this could be the start of a double bottom.

For that to materialize, buyers have to overcome several hurdles, including the daily 20 EMA, which has been treated as resistance. Once that is cleared, $340 will come into play as a major resistance. We think the price is now in a range between $200 and $340 and it should stabilize until a new major catalyzer emerges.

Breaking below $200 will be a sign that the market still has bearish legs to go and in that case, the trend could extend towards $150. We think the market should retrace from oversold conditions and it translates into a bounce.