Crypto Frontline

Introduction

Bitcoin has entered a new chapter in its price trajectory, consolidating steadily around the $100,000 mark. For over a month, BTC has fluctuated between $100K and $110K, forming what analysts believe could be a solid price floor. This is not merely speculation — on-chain data is increasingly showing strong signs that this zone is being treated as a new structural bottom, much like previous cycle lows. Investors and analysts alike are pointing to a combination of exchange outflows, dormant coin activity, and market absorption of sell pressure as powerful indicators that the groundwork for the next bull cycle may be well underway.

Understanding The Outflow/Inflow Ratio: A Strong Accumulation Signal

One of the key indicators used by analysts to identify accumulation phases is the outflow/inflow ratio on cryptocurrency exchanges. This metric compares the amount of BTC being withdrawn from exchanges (outflows) with the amount being deposited (inflows). A ratio below 1.0 typically suggests more BTC is being taken off exchanges than being sent in, indicating accumulation and long-term holding behavior. Currently, this ratio is hovering around 0.9 — a level not seen since the end of the 2022 bear market. This strong accumulation pattern signals that investors are moving their assets into cold storage or institutional custody, which historically correlates with long-term bullish trends.

Price Range Compression Between $100k–$110k Reflects Market Confidence

While traditional market participants may view a tight trading range as a sign of indecision, seasoned crypto investors recognize consolidation as a potential precursor to significant price movement. Since early May 2025, Bitcoin has remained largely within a $10,000 window, with the lower boundary at $100K acting as strong support. Even when faced with short-term volatility, such as a brief dip below $99K, prices were quickly bought up, returning to the broader consolidation range. This behavior suggests a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with institutional and long-term retail investors treating this zone as a buying opportunity rather than a selling one.

Short-Side Pressure Absorbed: What CVD Data Tells Us?

An important concept in assessing market dynamics is the cumulative volume delta (CVD), which shows the net difference between aggressive market buyers and sellers. Over the past month, CVD has remained deeply negative on platforms like Binance, indicating that short sellers have been exerting consistent pressure. However, the key observation here is that despite this selling effort, prices have not meaningfully declined. Instead, they have remained stable or even slightly appreciated, which implies that buy orders are more than sufficient to absorb the short pressure. This scenario is often interpreted as a bullish signal because it shows that the market is capable of withstanding intense sell-side aggression.

Dormant Wallet Activity Confirms Institutional Interest

Another significant signal supporting the bottom thesis is the sudden movement of long-dormant BTC. Analysts have noted that nearly 19,400 BTC — worth over $2 billion — recently moved out of wallets that had been inactive for three to seven years. This kind of activity is rarely random and typically occurs when major institutional investors are involved, either through over-the-counter (OTC) deals or strategic accumulation strategies. The transfer of such large amounts to active wallets strongly indicates that serious investors are positioning themselves for long-term gains, treating the $100K–$110K range as a prime accumulation zone.

Parallels To The 2022 Cycle Bottom Strengthen The Case

Comparing the current setup to previous market cycles adds further credibility to the bottom theory. In December 2022, BTC had reached a multi-year low of around $15,500, and several on-chain indicators, including outflow/inflow ratios and HODL wave movements, aligned to confirm a bottom. Fast forward to 2025, and we are seeing similar conditions — albeit at a much higher price point. The same metrics are now pointing to accumulation and strong support, suggesting that the cycle structure may be repeating, only this time from a six-figure base. This comparison strengthens the hypothesis that we are on the verge of another significant upward trend.

Remaining Risks And Market Headwinds

While the data paints an optimistic picture, it’s important to acknowledge the potential risks. One of the main concerns lies in technical resistance zones between $110K and $115K, which must be breached convincingly for a true breakout to occur. Additionally, some valuation metrics, such as the MVRV Z-Score, still indicate that BTC may not be oversold from a long-term perspective, implying that more sideways movement could be ahead. Regulatory uncertainty, especially in the U.S., also remains a wildcard that could temporarily disrupt bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the presence of strong fundamental signals suggests that any downside would likely be limited and short-lived.

What Comes Next: Watching The Breakout Zones

For Bitcoin to confirm a new bull phase, several milestones must be reached. First, a sustained breakout above the $112K level would signal renewed upward momentum. Secondly, observing a positive flip in the cumulative volume delta would indicate that buying pressure is finally overwhelming sellers. Lastly, continued net exchange outflows and further movement of dormant coins would support the idea of long-term confidence returning to the market. Should all these indicators align, BTC could enter a new price discovery phase, with potential targets ranging from $130K to $150K before the end of 2025.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price action and on-chain behavior suggest that the cryptocurrency is building a strong foundational range between $100K and $110K. Unlike past cycles marked by volatility and unpredictable swings, the current landscape reflects institutional maturity, disciplined accumulation, and absorption of short-side pressure. While the market still faces external risks, the internal metrics are leaning heavily bullish. For investors tracking the long-term trajectory of BTC, these developments may well mark the early stages of a new market cycle, potentially paving the way for a breakout to all-time highs in the near future.