Crypto Frontline

Weekly Crypto Analysis July 4-10, 2022

Weekly Crypto Analysis July 4-10, 2022
July 04
14:05 2022

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

BTCUSD technical analysis
Source: TradingView

Contrary to our last week’s expectations, Bitcoin failed to sustain the rebound, broke below the 4h chart 20 EMA and $20k support and right now it could barely consolidate in a narrow range. The only piece of good news is that the price did not retest or exceed the June low, so a higher high might be generated from now on.

However, we should remain conservative and suggest that only if the price breaks back above the 20 EMA, a continuation towards a descending trend line might be in the cards. Above that, the 4h chart 200 SMA is the next key resistance to watch. For the time being, the orange line stands around $24k, so that should cap the upside if the sentiment improves.

Unfortunately, sellers are still in control, which is why we must consider the bearish scenario as well. A continuation lower means $18k will need to act as support. Little below that we have the June lows and once a break occurs, the price can dip towards $15k.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

ETHUSD technical analysis
Source: TradingView

Similar to Bitcoin, Ether failed to continue up, but for now, $1k seems to be a strong area of support. If buyers can continue to push the price higher, we think there’s potential for an extension towards $1.2k-$1.3k.

It all depends on the risk sentiment and for now, the USD continues to move up even if Treasury yields are edging lower. That is a clear flight to safety and volatile assets like crypto can’t perform well in such an environment.

Breaking below $1k will put under pressure the $900 support, as well as the June low. Persistent selling will mean $800 and $700 could follow next. The sentiment has been influenced by news related to crypto companies restricting withdrawals, so market participants continue to liquidate their holdings, afraid more problems might be on the way. Since the first half of 2022 was extremely bearish, the crypto market starts H2 poorly positioned.

XRPUSD (Kraken)

XRPUSD technical analysis
Source: TradingView

Another crypto looking interesting from a price action perspective is XRP. The token is in a range between 30 cents and 38 cents, so until the structure breaks, traders could play both sides. Buyers seem to be active right now, even if the price was close to touching the lower bound.

Interest to buy is encouraging in the short-term, suggesting the price can move higher, towards 35 cents or 38 cents. A break on the upside will be a clear signal for a continuation towards 50 cents, the next key psychological area.

Bad news will come if XRP breaks below the structure and exceeds the June low. In that scenario, we believe the bear market can extend further, with the only major support left located around 20 cents.

This is a cryptocurrency not posting elevated volatility and traders with a more conservative risk appetite might be attracted. However, the broad market sentiment can still weigh on XRP, so make sure you watch how the market will perform over the upcoming days before opening any trade on XRP.


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