Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Volatility in Bitcoin compressed last week, although the upside remains intact. The price managed to break above $95k, which is a bullish sign, but buyers failed to keep the market above it. 

A short-term ascending trend line continues to be respected and as long as that happens, we think there is room for further upside. This week we have the FOMC and based on current expectations, it should be a non-event. But, traders should carefully watch the press conference since that’s when the chair usually shares critical information. If risk assets remain stable after the event, Bitcoin buyers might get a new boost. 

In this bullish scenario, we continue to see $100k as an important upside target. The level has high significance because it’s a psychological area as well. In the broader picture, we are seeing a bullish parabolic structure, meaning dips are likely to be bought. 

A break below the ascending trend line + the daily 20 EMA could be an early sign of weakness. Bitcoin buyers will look for support around the daily 200 SMA and the $89k swing point. We remain cautiously bullish for now. 

ETHUSD (Kraken)

We’ve seen very choppy activity in Ether as well and neither side of the market managed to hold the upper hand. However, the broader picture favors buyers, given most gains are intact. The market has been sideways in between $1,725 and $1,850. 

The price is now pressing the upper side of that zone and we think a break higher is likely. If this truly happens, the probability of a move up into $2,000 will increase substantially. Sellers are slowly squeezed out of the market and bulls gain more confidence since we sell higher lows and higher highs.

Our bullish stance will be negated if ETH breaks and holds below the support area formed by $1,725 and the 4-hour chart 200 SMA. For that to happen, the market needs to be surprised by an unexpected negative headline, which isn’t the case for now. 

BNBUSD (Binance)

Binance Coin had failed to break above a trend line several times and for that matter, the market has been slightly bearish last week. Despite that, sellers are not gaining momentum, leaving the price vulnerable to buy-the-dip scenarios. 

While the price trends below the line, sellers have a slight advantage and if downside momentum accelerates, we could see BNB revisit $543, where buyers can rejoin on a stronger footing. They will have to stage a comeback there, because weak bullish momentum will mean the bigger picture is slowly shifting in favor of sellers and that could unlock further downside towards $507. 

A breakout higher above the trend line is what buyers expect right now. After that, the daily 200 SMA and the $644 resistance will be next to watch. Simply breaking the trend line will be a positive development, as sellers will be stopped out, further supporting the rally. This week could be another low-volatility period, so don’t expect larger moves.