Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Last week $110k continued to act as overhead resistance and we saw some BTC selling on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although there’s still uncertainty on when that could happen, markets don’t seem to care.

Selling has been limited since the daily 20 EMA seems to act as strong support. Bitcoin is recovering at the time of writing and unless the situation really escalates substantially, the path of least resistance seems to be up, not down. 

Putting aside geopolitics, which can’t be quantified, there is no change in the price action structure to suggest sellers are now in control. We expect the 20 EMA and the ascending trend line drawn on our chart to sustain the move up. If it happens, pressure will mount on $100k again and that could be a pre-breakout scenario. Above, we look at $115k and $120k as resistance. 

A change of market sentiment will be confirmed by a break below our trend line. Should that happen, expect more selling into $100k and the daily 200 SMA. The RSI is trading around 50, so all options are on the table. 

ETHUSD (Kraken)

When it comes to Ether, the bigger picture seems to have improved as well. Even though the price didn’t manage to break above $2,700, sellers could drive the price meaningfully lower either. 

On top of that, we are now seeing the daily 20 EMA acting as a dynamic support. This is encouraging for buyers and could suggest more gains down the road. The first sign we want to monitor is a break above $2,700. 

If it happens, the odds of a continuation will substantially increase. We would expect Ether to extend higher into $3,000, the next important resistance level. At that point, the risk of overshooting on the way up should be considered, since buyers will likely cause the breakout. 

The first line of support if selling resumes is $2,400. Failure to cap selling there would mean a deeper pullback towards $2,100 might follow. All in all, we are favoring the upside this week, barring any major negative headlines. 

ADAUSD (Binance)

Cardano has been weaker last week when compared to BTC and ETH. However, as the sentiment improves across the market, this coin has a higher potential for a rally. We see 64 cents as an important support, and already buyers are defending it properly. 

If gains continue to pile up, the market will have to break and hold above the daily 20 EMA as well. That’s the most tricky part, considering the blue line has acted as resistance recently. We think a change in sentiment could occur and buyers slowly gain more control of the price action. 

The upside target in that scenario is the daily 200 SMA – 82 cents area. On the downside, a break below 62 cents will open the door towards 58 cents and then the April lows. It all depends on whether broad risk sentiment improves or not.