Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Source: TradingView

We’re back with the first weekly analysis for 2022 and the picture for Bitcoin continues to deteriorate. More specifically, the price is pressured below the daily 200 SMA, signaling shallow buying activity.

With that being the case, we suspect BTC is poised for further weakness in the short-term, and the first major support area to watch is located close to $40k, That’s also a psychological level, which is another reason for buyers to be more involved. In case it won’t hold, that could indicate the selling move can further extend towards the $30k support.

On the upside, Bitcoin should start treating the daily 20 EMA as support, which is not the case for the time being. Clearing out the $52k would be a positive development, but even in that scenario, the buying should be sustained. Overall, the price action remains tilted in favor of sellers and we assume that January will shape up to be a bearish month for BTC.

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Source: TradingView

In line with our last week’s projections, Ether broke below a short-term ascending trend line and that triggered some heavy selling. Even though the price action has been recovering for the past couple of days, 4 days of consolidation could barely cover a day of selling.

Such developments are not indicative of heavy buying, which is why we suspect the daily 20 EMA remains a strong supply area. The market already treated it as resistance multiple times during the last few weeks, so if the price gets back there, it could be a new opportunity to sell ETH.

We maintain our forecast that Ether will continue to weaken towards the $3.4k area, where the daily 200 SMA is also located. As you can see, the selling is shaping up to be a parabolic top, which is not good news for Ether buyers.

To negate the current bearish context, buyers will have to push the price above $4.2k, which is not the best-case scenario for now. Liquidity is still thin, given traders are getting back from the holidays, but over the next few days activity should pick up.

ADAUSD (Binance)

Source: TradingView

Cardano has been under heavy pressure since September 2021 and buyers were not able to get back control over the order flow. The price continues to treat the daily 20 EMA as resistance and that makes us believe some further selling is very likely.

The first target area is around $1, which we’ve discussed in the past as well. Given the parabolic structure, it could also be a place for a potential breakout and further weakness below. Bear in mind the ADA technical picture is not favorable at all for buyers, which is why if you want to get long, patience is required until conditions will change.

If the $1 key support area will hold, then the probability for a bounce towards $1.8 increases. This is also dependent on the broad market sentiment, which for the time being, is not helping buyers at all.