Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

February starts with a bang since BTC valuations are already under pressure following trade war concerns. The US imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, a move that could push the US Dollar and yields up once financial markets open tomorrow.

This is not a favorable environment for crypto, so investors and traders are already cashing out, expecting high volatility tomorrow. Right now, BTC trades little below $100k and looks poised to break lower. Our main support levels for the upcoming days are $95k and $90k. 

We believe that if markets can’t hold above $90k it will be a sign of further weakness down the road, which could push Bitcoin towards $75k. Markets expect a pushback on these tariffs, and if that doesn’t happen, the path of least resistance is down. 

On the upside, Bitcoin must break above the 20 EMA on the 4h chart. The most important resistance is around $106 since that will be an important technical development for buyers. We give an edge to sellers, at least for the start of the week and then traders will have to adjust based on the latest headlines. 

ETHUSD (Kraken)

We see weakness in ETH as well since the market treats the daily 20 EMA as resistance. That’s not a piece of good news for bulls and as things stand right now, we might be at the beginning of an impulsive move lower.

There seems to be a bearish parabolic structure in the making, so the next key area to watch is $3,000. A breakout below that will likely push ETH towards $2,400 during the next 2 weeks. Buyers have been successful in defending the area and that’s the reason why we view a break as such a bearish signal.

Buyers will only hold an edge if the price treats the 20 EMA as support instead of resistance + the price must break above $3,400. That doesn’t seem like a favorable scenario right now, or at least until the trade tensions ease. 

LTCUSD (Coinbase)

Even though the daily chart is not looking as bad as with Ether, Litecoin is slowly weakening and we suspect it will continue to do so next week. The price is now below the daily 20 EMA and the next target is at $100. 

But, if selling accelerates, the psychological area shouldn’t be a strong enough support. We believe a larger move towards $90-$85 could unfold, which means ETH will retest the daily 200 SMA. 

That’s the place where buyers might try to defend themselves from further downsides. Losing the 200 SMA will be a strong bearish sign. Until then, we are slightly bearish, expecting further pressure as the markets digest the spike in geopolitical tensions. 

Keep in mind there is room to go south from here because the RSI is trading at 50 on the daily chart, meaning it’s not yet oversold. Additionally, it can spend a lot of time even below 30, if the selling pressure turns out strong.