Crypto Frontline

BTCUSD (Coinbase)

Although last week BTC was on an upbeat footing, that seems to have changed once the price retested the December 2025 highs. We mentioned that momentum could accelerate further only if the price action breaks and holds above those levels and since it didn’t happen, sellers are back in control. 

The 20 EMA on the daily chart provided some short-term support, yet that’s not enough to push the price up into last week’s highs. We expect some further weakness towards the $86k support and if that doesn’t hold, $82k will be the next area of interest for buyers. 

A break below the November 2025 low will be a bearish signal and in that scenario, we would expect Bitcoin to weaken further during this quarter. Appetite for crypto is not increasing, despite stock markets trading close to record levels. 

Usually, there is a positive correlation between risk asset classes and given that’s no longer the case, Bitcoin is vulnerable in case the broad sentiment continues to deteriorate further. We will turn bullish only if the price breaks above $94.5k. 

ETHUSD (Kraken)

Ether bulls are also showing reluctance and we say that because the price is trading inside a triangle formation. The breakout could occur on either side, so traders must be patient and act only after the impulsive move starts to unravel.

In the meantime, short-term trades inside the triangle can happen on an intraday basis. Above the structure, we see $3,350 and $3,650 as the next potential targets. Below the triangle, we expect weakness towards the $2,800 or $2,400 levels. 

Considering that Ether has been under pressure since September last year and this triangle consolidation occurs after a bearish leg down, sellers are holding the upper hand. Basically, we have a corrective move after an impulsive move lower. 

This bearish picture will only change after the price breaks and holds above $3,350. We’ll get bullish in this case and target a move towards the daily 200 SMA. 

ADAUSD (Binance)

After the October 10th slump, Cardano failed to generate an impulsive move higher. In fact, we’ve seen the price under constant pressure, with selling resuming after touching the daily 20 EMA. 

For now, we can’t treat this development as a bottoming process. As long as the downside pressure persists, we think it’s likely the market will weaken into the 27.9 cents area, where the October 10th low is located. 

We wouldn’t place any longs at this point since ADA continues to trade below a bearish trend line. Further weakness followed by strong bullish interest around 28 cents will be an early sign of improvement. 

If the price breaks below the Oct 10th low and doesn’t generate a meaningful pullback higher, that will be a bearish and continuation sign. The price action structure suggests a bearish environment, which is why we can’t recommend long at this point. Things can change, but we need a major catalyst for that.